NAR - economy and housing to improveAlthough the housing market struggled to maintain an even footing
in 2011, gradual improvement is expected in 2012 and beyond,
according to projections at a residential forum here at the 2011
Realtors Conference & Expo. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the
National Association of Realtors and the most optimistic man in
America, said home sales should be stronger. “Tight mortgage
credit conditions have been holding back home buyers all year,
and consumer confidence has been shaky recently,” he said.
“Nonetheless, there is a sizeable pent-up demand based on
population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon
that can’t continue indefinitely. This demand could quickly
stimulate the market when conditions improve.” Yun projects
growth in Gross Domestic Product to be 1.8 percent this year,
then rising moderately at a rate of 2.2 percent in 2012. With job
growth of 1.7 to 2.2 million next year, the unemployment rate is
expected to decline to 8.7 percent by the second half of 2012.
Mortgage interest rates should gradually rise from recent record
lows and reach 4.5 percent by the middle of 2012.Existing-home sales are forecast to edge up about 1 percent this
year, and then rise another 4 to 5 percent in 2012. Based on
NAR’s current projection model, existing-home sales would total
4.96 million in 2011. NAR presently is benchmarking
existing-home sales, and downward revisions are expected for
totals in recent years, although there will be little change to
previously reported comparisons based on percentage change. There
will be will be no change to median prices or month’s supply of
inventory. Publication of the improved measurement methodology is
expected in the near future. New-home sales are expected to be a
record low 302,000 this year, rising to 372,000 in 2012. Housing
starts are forecast to rise to 630,000 next year from 583,000 in
2011. “Although a double-digit growth in new-home sales and
housing starts sounds encouraging, the projections remain
historically soft relative to long-term underlying demand,” Yun
explained. With falling inventory, the median home price should
rise in 2012. “Home prices have yet to show a definitive
stabilization pattern in most areas. Still, given an
over-correction in prices, there likely will be moderate
appreciation in 2012,” Yun said.
in 2011, gradual improvement is expected in 2012 and beyond,
according to projections at a residential forum here at the 2011
Realtors Conference & Expo. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the
National Association of Realtors and the most optimistic man in
America, said home sales should be stronger. “Tight mortgage
credit conditions have been holding back home buyers all year,
and consumer confidence has been shaky recently,” he said.
“Nonetheless, there is a sizeable pent-up demand based on
population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon
that can’t continue indefinitely. This demand could quickly
stimulate the market when conditions improve.” Yun projects
growth in Gross Domestic Product to be 1.8 percent this year,
then rising moderately at a rate of 2.2 percent in 2012. With job
growth of 1.7 to 2.2 million next year, the unemployment rate is
expected to decline to 8.7 percent by the second half of 2012.
Mortgage interest rates should gradually rise from recent record
lows and reach 4.5 percent by the middle of 2012.Existing-home sales are forecast to edge up about 1 percent this
year, and then rise another 4 to 5 percent in 2012. Based on
NAR’s current projection model, existing-home sales would total
4.96 million in 2011. NAR presently is benchmarking
existing-home sales, and downward revisions are expected for
totals in recent years, although there will be little change to
previously reported comparisons based on percentage change. There
will be will be no change to median prices or month’s supply of
inventory. Publication of the improved measurement methodology is
expected in the near future. New-home sales are expected to be a
record low 302,000 this year, rising to 372,000 in 2012. Housing
starts are forecast to rise to 630,000 next year from 583,000 in
2011. “Although a double-digit growth in new-home sales and
housing starts sounds encouraging, the projections remain
historically soft relative to long-term underlying demand,” Yun
explained. With falling inventory, the median home price should
rise in 2012. “Home prices have yet to show a definitive
stabilization pattern in most areas. Still, given an
over-correction in prices, there likely will be moderate
appreciation in 2012,” Yun said.
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