Fannie Mae sees 2012 home sales up 3.5% to 4.74 million
by ANDREW SCOGGIN www.housingwire.comFriday, January 13th, 2012The housing sector will likely take incremental steps forward in 2012, though total originations will fall on fewer refinances, according to economists at Fannie Mae.The second half of the year should outpace the first six months in terms of growth, though fiscal policy and political uncertainty in Washington will likely drive consumer and business activity, the mortgage giant said.Chief Economist Doug Duncan said positive consumer activity and challenges in housing and the global economy will equate to moderate growth for the year."We're entering 2012 with decent momentum, especially on the employment side, which is fostering positive household and consumer behavior," Duncan said in a release. "Unfortunately, we expect this momentum to slow as we move through the first half of the year."The report released Friday forecast total home sales to increase 3.5% to about 4.74 million in 2012 from 2011 with another 5% gain in 2013 to nearly 5 million. New home sales could jump 10.4% for 2012.The Federal Housing Finance Agency home sales price index, excluding refinances, could dip 1.1% for 2012 from a year before, according to the forecast. Economists predicted the 2011 index would finish 4.6% lower than 2010.Mortgage originations as dollar volume could see a decline as well in 2012, largely on a steep drop in refinances. The Fannie report said total originations will fall to $1.01 trillion in 2012 from a predicted final 2011 tally of $1.36 trillion. Economists expected refinancing to plummet to $540 billion from $894 billion.Purchase mortgages, however, will rise to $471 billion in 2012 from a estimated 2011 total of $464, according to the report.Total single-family outstanding mortgage debt will likely drop 1.3% to $10.14 trillion in 2012.For the U.S. economy as a whole, Fannie researchers predicted real GDP would increase 3.3% in the fourth quarter to finish the year at 1.7% growth. Economists forecast 2.3% GDP growth for 2012 and 2013.January 16, 2012 at 12:59 PM | Categories: News | URL: http://wp.me/pPoVF-95
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To buy or sell in 2012, what with Armageddon coming and all? Absent any ancient Mayan wisdom on real estate strategies, let's just hope the real cataclysmic event in the real estate market already has passed, even if the rubble from the bubble remains.
A stubborn overstock of households with loans higher than their value will continue to restrain prices and create some major obstacles for sellers in 2012, a year that's shaping up to be another homebuyer's market. In fact, recent studies indicate that more than 20 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage are still underwater, hinting that many foreclosures and workouts are still to come.
However, even the most conservative forecasts call for growth in home sales in 2012, with some select pockets around the country already busting out where there are competitive offers on new listings. More than one-third of home resales were made to first-time buyers in 2011 -- another good sign.
Meanwhile, here are 12 tips for 2012, aimed largely at the group that needs the most help -- home sellers.
Price it right from the get-go
The old-school strategy of real estate sellers crossing their arms and holding out for a better offer will be brushed off by most homebuyers. Consider that of the homes that took four months or more to sell in the past year, almost half of their owners accepted less than 90 percent of the asking price, according to the National Association of Realtors. For a gauge, have your agent produce the latest comparable sales including short sales and foreclosures as well as a recent summary of sales prices versus original list prices. But be wary that such information doesn't reflect the homes that failed to sell.
Put your best footage forward
Prep, paint, stage, scrub, improve, repeat. Efforts can include caulking, plastering, planting flowers, adding potted plants, making the windows spotless, pressure washing that oily driveway, edging the walks, trimming the bushes and trees, and mending the fences. None of these is excessively capital-intensive, but when applied en masse, they say "buy me."
Be flexible
I'm not saying bend over backward to accommodate real estate buyers. Bend forward and sideways, too. Be ready to negotiate and offer extras such as closing costs, paid property taxes, remodeling work (or a cash credit), appliances, paid condo association/homeowner association dues, a few months of mortgage payments or even seller financing. Home sellers who've been on the sidelines and who advised their agents to ignore offers by lowballers don't have that luxury now. Instruct your agent to listen intently to prospective homebuyers' misgivings about the home and adjust accordingly and immediately.
Trump your techno-fears
Hire a listing agent steeped in mobile platforms. Sellers and buyers are routinely using Facebook and other social media to sell and seek, not to mention dozens of online selling sites. Some owners are even making YouTube videos to showcase their homes, making it easier to quickly link to potential buyers via email. There's also an abundance of smartphone apps cropping up to review real estate listings and refine searches.
Don't fall prey
Fraudsters are targeting distressed homeowners with "deals" that can sound perfectly legit. Some offer loan modifications for upfront fees while others offer fee-based "help" in navigating government housing assistance programs, sometimes claiming they're attorneys.
There are also con-artist "investors" compelling desperate owners to sign over their homes with quitclaim deeds in return for a typically empty promise to remain there indefinitely. Others are telling former owners they can get their homes back for a lump sum. Be forewarned: Never sign blank documents or documents with blank lines.
If you're unsure of an offer, have an attorney or other trusted adviser look it over. Keep in mind that a law barring firms -- except attorneys -- from charging upfront fees for mortgage relief or mortgage modification took effect in 2011. It's called the Mortgage Assistance Relief Services Rule.
Be flexible
I'm not saying bend over backward to accommodate real estate buyers. Bend forward and sideways, too. Be ready to negotiate and offer extras such as closing costs, paid property taxes, remodeling work (or a cash credit), appliances, paid condo association/homeowner association dues, a few months of mortgage payments or even seller financing. Home sellers who've been on the sidelines and who advised their agents to ignore offers by lowballers don't have that luxury now. Instruct your agent to listen intently to prospective homebuyers' misgivings about the home and adjust accordingly and immediately.
Trump your techno-fears
Hire a listing agent steeped in mobile platforms. Sellers and buyers are routinely using Facebook and other social media to sell and seek, not to mention dozens of online selling sites. Some owners are even making YouTube videos to showcase their homes, making it easier to quickly link to potential buyers via email. There's also an abundance of smartphone apps cropping up to review real estate listings and refine searches.
Don't fall prey
Fraudsters are targeting distressed homeowners with "deals" that can sound perfectly legit. Some offer loan modifications for upfront fees while others offer fee-based "help" in navigating government housing assistance programs, sometimes claiming they're attorneys.
There are also con-artist "investors" compelling desperate owners to sign over their homes with quitclaim deeds in return for a typically empty promise to remain there indefinitely. Others are telling former owners they can get their homes back for a lump sum. Be forewarned: Never sign blank documents or documents with blank lines.
If you're unsure of an offer, have an attorney or other trusted adviser look it over. Keep in mind that a law barring firms -- except attorneys -- from charging upfront fees for mortgage relief or mortgage modification took effect in 2011. It's called the Mortgage Assistance Relief Services Rule.
Finance 101
Realize it's harder to qualify for loans these days. Credit records are under greater scrutiny, and lenders are often demanding a 20 percent down payment and some pricing flexibility from the sellers, especially if the lender's appraisal doesn't reach the asking price.
Consider cash offers, even if they're not the highest. Reject too-low offers from homebuyers gently and with encouragement, telling them they're oh-so-close. You don't want to give away the farm, but you don't want to give it back to the bank either. These days, meeting halfway usually means meeting buyers on their half.
Be your own spokesperson
Agents once advised home sellers to retreat from view during showings, lest they disclose something unsavory or otherwise botch the deal. That's changed. If you can control your ego and emotions and come off as an earnest, flexible seller, you can serve as your best spokesperson. Be ready to answer would-be buyers' questions about the neighborhood and area schools. Be careful about making verbal promises!
Flight to quality
Worried about durability? Buyers who place a heavier focus on brick or concrete-and-steel housing may find they're more enduring, safer and quieter.
Are you worried about sustaining value? Buy near a prestigious hospital, university, large government employer or newly vibrant central business district. These entities typically aren't going away, and the demand for good housing around them won't either.
Expand your buying universe
There's still an overabundance of well-priced inventory out there, which means you needn't immediately narrow your search to the first house you fancy. That's especially the case with short sale homes, which can be a nightmare to close in a timely manner. There are some for-sale gems that need only a little polishing.
Shop around. Don't dismiss foreclosures and other bank properties, pre-foreclosures, auction homes, for-sale-by-owner or lease-to-own homes. Pick at least three favorites and work from there.
'Site unseen' equals shortsightedness
Are you perplexed by the home valuation you did on your place on the website of a large, seemingly reputable real estate organization? Puzzled how that valuation can be 25 percent or more above or below a firsthand appraisal you've had done? Well, value estimates on these sites can vary widely, sometimes by hundreds of thousands of dollars, even by the admission of the companies themselves. There are way too many variables in the valuation game to give too much credence to blind, algorithm-based estimates that are impersonally calculated. Nothing beats a nuanced firsthand professional appraisal.
Expand your buyer's due diligence
Aside from the financial details, contracts, disclosures and protections you typically tend to as you prep to buy a home, add these to the list:
- Hire a title company to check the house for liens and tax arrearages.
- Hire you own inspector. Don't use the seller's!
- Have the inspector check for unpermitted work such as illegal room additions and garage conversions.
- Consider the overall energy efficiency of the home with an energy audit.
- Be sure property lines are accurate. If there's any question, hire a land surveyor to research the original deed and to stake out the property's lines and your neighbors' property lines to avoid future disputes.
Make a quality-of-life due-diligence checklist
- Go to the National Sex Offender Public Website at Nsopw.gov to search for neighborhood predators.
- Spend some time around the neighborhood and briefly interview neighbors. Determine if there are noisy neighbors, signs of gang activity, nocturnal barking dogs, indigent lingerers, frequent loud parties and/or suspicious nighttime visits. Are there lots of rental homes? Is the block a cut-through point during rush hour? Does the school bus go past the block? Is there a restrictive homeowners association?
- Determine what types of buildings can be constructed on vacant lots adjacent to the neighborhood. This helps avoid unpleasant future surprises. Is there constant noise from a nearby highway or busy street? Are there odors from nearby industrial plants?
