Adjustable-rate mortgages are making a comeback

Adjustable-rate mortgages are making a comeback

Hybrid ARMs, some of which have rates significantly lower than 30-year fixed-rate mortgage alternatives, are growing in popularity.

By Kenneth R. Harney, LA Times

January 30, 2011

Reporting from Washington

After years of virtual exile from the home loan arena, is the adjustable-rate mortgage staging a quiet comeback? Could an ARM be on your shopping list the next time you need to buy a house or refinance?

You might be surprised.

A new survey of 112 lenders by mortgage giant Freddie Mac found that ARMs are starting to attract applicants again. Adjustables accounted for just 3% of new home loans in early 2009 but are projected to be picked by nearly 1 out of 10 borrowers in 2011. In the jumbo and super-jumbo segments, the share will be even larger, according to Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft.

How could this be, with fixed 30-year rates at half-century lows, hovering just under 5%? Isn't it axiomatic that it's always smarter to lock in a low fixed rate for as long as possible rather than gamble on a loan whose rate might bounce around in the years ahead?

That logic still holds up for most people, but not for everybody. Here's why. The boom-era models of the ARM have pretty much disappeared — there are no more of the two-year adjustables that hooked record numbers of consumers in 2003 and 2004 with teaser rates that needed to be refinanced with heavy fees within 24 months. No more "pick-a-pay" ARMs that were mass-marketed with loosey-goosey underwriting and the potential for negative amortization.

The most popular ARM in the market today, according to the Freddie Mac survey, is the 5-1 hybrid. Its rate is fixed for the first five years of the loan, then adjusts annually for as much as the next 25 years, with rate caps to cushion payment shocks if rates suddenly soar. There are also 7-1 and 3-1 hybrids. The antique one-year ARM still is available but doesn't get a lot of takers.

The real key to the growing popularity of hybrid ARMs is in their pricing. Rates are significantly lower than fixed 30-year alternatives, with no teasers or negative amortization involved. In some cases, they also come with other attractive terms, such as more flexible underwriting standards.

According to data supplied by Dan Green, a loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage Corp. in Cincinnati and author of TheMortgageReports.com blog, the rate spread between 5-1 hybrid ARMs and 30-year fixed-rate loans has widened to around 1.625 percentage points.

To illustrate, say you're interested in a $250,000 conventional loan to buy a house. You've got a FICO credit score of 740 and want to close in 45 days. You could opt for a 30-year fixed loan at 4.75%, requiring a monthly principal and interest payment of $1,304. Alternatively, you could opt for a 5-1 ARM fixed at 3.125%, costing $1,071 in principal and interest per month — a $233 saving.

But now check out the niche where hybrid ARMs really shine: jumbo and super-jumbo mortgages. Generally jumbos range from $417,000 to $729,750, depending on home prices in your local market. Super jumbos can go into the millions.

Say you need a $450,000 mortgage with a 45-day closing and you have a FICO score of 740. According to Green, you should be able to get a 30-year fixed-rate jumbo for around 5.625%. Monthly principal and interest on a fixed-rate jumbo would total $2,590 a month.

Compare that with a $450,000 hybrid 5-1 ARM: 3.5% for the initial five years, requiring $2,020 a month in principal and interest. That's a rate spread of 2.125 points — "the best we've seen in years," Green said. "It's very aggressively priced" by banks that want to originate the loans to hold in their own portfolios.

The savings go even higher in the super-jumbo space — a $1-million 5-1 ARM goes for 3.5% and saves a borrower $1,266 a month compared with a competing fixed-rate 30-year loan at 5.6%.

Cathy Warshawsky, president and senior loan officer of Bay Area Loan Inc. in San Jose, cites another advantage for some jumbo borrowers — special enhancements in payment terms. For example, a client of Warshawsky's needed a $950,000 mortgage at the lowest rate and monthly payment. She signed him up for a 5-1 hybrid at 5.75%, interest-only.

None of this is to suggest, of course, that hybrid adjustables make financial sense for everybody. They don't. But if you fit one of the niches — you need a jumbo, you know you're likely to be transferred or you expect to sell the house within five to seven years — they merit a serious look.

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Economy at a Glance

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PMI Tax Deductibility Extended Through 2011

PMI Tax Deductibility Extended Through 2011

There's great news for homeowners! Congress recently extended legislation making private mortgage insurance (PMI) premiums tax deductible through 2011!

So why is this significant? PMI can help people buy a home sooner, by enabling them to put less than 20% of the purchase price down when buying a home. This increase in purchasing power can sometimes be the difference between affording the home of your dreams...or not.

What's more, this deduction is not just for first-time homebuyers, so it can be used by current homeowners looking to upgrade to a new home. However, it does only apply to "qualified" residences, which typically include a primary residence and a vacation home, but not an investment property.

It's important to note that PMI is only tax deductible for homeowners with adjusted gross incomes of less than $110,000. Borrowers with adjusted gross incomes up to $100,000 may be able to deduct 100% of their 2011 premiums. Deductions are phased out in 10% increments for borrowers with adjusted gross incomes between $100,000 and $109,000.

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The Eight States Running Out of Homebuyers

The Eight States Running Out of Homebuyers

by Douglas A. McIntyre, Michael B. Sauter and Charles B. Stockdale
Tuesday, January 18, 2011

The single biggest problem in the U.S. real estate market is simple: There are very few homebuyers.

That seems obvious, but the "buyers' strike" has caused house prices to drop, along with an epidemic of foreclosures. What's worse, the long depression in real estate is probably not over. S&P has forecast that home prices will drop by 7% to 10% this year. The S&P Case-Shiller Index has dropped for most of the 20 largest real estate markets over the last several months. RealtyTrac recently reported that more than 1 million homes were foreclosed upon in 2010.

Many economists argue that the housing market may take four or five years to recover. Even if that's proven to be true, the all-time highs of 2006 may never be reached again.

The devastation in some regions will never be repaired. Parts of Oregon, Georgia and Arizona have become progressively more deserted. Since jobless rates may never recover, there is little reason to hope that the populations in these areas will ever rebound. Some homes will be torn down in these pockets of high foreclosures in the hopes that reducing supplies will boost prices. Whether that idea will work in hard-hit areas such as Flint, Mich., and Yuma, Ariz., remains to be seen.

24/7 Wall St. looked at a number of the standard measures to find the housing markets facing the biggest problems attracting buyers. After a detailed examination, six metrics were chosen: (1) vacancy rates for 2010; (2) foreclosure rates for 2010; (3) November 2010 unemployment rates; (4) change in building permits from 2006 to 2010; (5) change in population from 2005 to 2010; and (6) price reduction by major cities for 2010. Taken together, they create a strong statistical base to describe markets which buyers have largely abandoned.

Several states nearly made it onto the list, such as Colorado and South Carolina, but did not get poor enough marks across all of our measurements. Each was among the 10 worst for declines in building permits. Colorado had one of the worst foreclosure rates, and South Carolina one of the worst vacancy rates. However, the populations in both states have rebounded enough to make a strong case that their housing markets may recover moderately over time.

The review of the data raises several public policy issues. The most important of these is whether the federal focus on reviving the housing market should be concentrated in the hardest hit regions. The counter to that point of view is that some cities, such as Flint, or states like Nevada are in such bad shape that they are beyond assistance. Unemployment rates are too high in these areas, and perhaps the number of homes on the market is too large.

One thing is certain. The housing recovery will be wildly uneven. A city like New York, which has a dense population and large numbers of middle class and upper class buyers who will wait until they believe prices hit bottom, will have a rapid recovery soon. Building permits granted in New York City over the last four years have been very low. The supply of apartments is also low. Those forces taken together with an even modest economic recovery will help push real estate prices higher in New York and regions with similar characteristics.

The real estate crisis has gone on for four years. In the states 24/7 Wall St. has chosen here, the crisis will go on much longer.

1. Michigan

Vacancy Rate: 15.98% (9th Worst)
Unemployment: 12.4% (Tied for 2nd Worst)
Population Change 2005-2010: -2.05% (Worst)

Michigan is one of only two states whose population has decreased in the last five years. The state has lost more than 2% of its population since 2005. Most of this population loss was undoubtedly due to the depression in the car industry that led to the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler. Flint, once one of the largest car manufacturing cities in America, has lost more than 10% of its population in the past 10 years. The state has the second-worst unemployment rate in the country at 12.4%. Michigan has a home vacancy rate of 15.98%, the ninth-worst in the U.S. There are large neighborhoods in Detroit that are vacant.

2. Nevada

2010 Foreclosures: 9.42% (Worst)
Unemployment: 14.3% (Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -84.39% (Worst)

In 2010, an incredible 9.42% of all housing units in Nevada were foreclosed upon. This is by far the highest foreclosure rate in the U.S., and is nearly twice that of the next-worst state. Nevada also has the highest unemployment rate in the United States, at 14.3%.The recession undermined profits in the gaming industry. Between 2006 and 2010, the state had an 84.3% decrease in building permit requests, the largest drop in the country. This has resulted in the loss of tens of thousands of construction jobs.

3. Arizona

Vacancy Rate: 17.3% (5th Worst)
2010 Foreclosures: 5.73% (2nd Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -81.36% (4th Worst)

Arizona is among a handful of states most deeply wounded by the real estate collapse. Some 5.73% of properties in the state have been foreclosed upon, the second highest rate in the country, and 17.3% of homes are vacant, the fifth greatest rate in the country. Also, Mesa, Phoenix and Tucson, the state's three largest cities, are all among the top five American cities with the greatest percentage of price reductions for homes in 2010, along with Minneapolis and Baltimore. As of December 2010, these cities had 43%, 42% and 38% of their listings with price reductions, respectively.

4. California

2010 Foreclosures: 4.08% (4th Worst)
Unemployment: 12.4% (Tied for 2nd Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -74.7% (6th Worst)

California's impact on the housing market is huge. The state is the largest among the 50 in total GDP and housing units. California's unemployment rate of 12.4% is now tied for second place with Michigan, once the jobless capital of the nation. In 2010, the state had one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country, at just over 4%. New construction has dropped off dramatically as well, with a 74 % decrease in new building permits between 2006 and 2010.

5. Illinois

2010 Foreclosures: 2.87% (9th Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -81.32% (5th Worst)
Population Change 2005-2010: 1.23% (8th Worst)

Although Illinois has a relatively low residential vacancy rate, finding people to buy homes can be difficult. The state's population only grew 1.23% between 2005 and 2010. This is the eighth worst growth rate in the country. Furthermore, the number of building permits issued since 2006 decreased 81.32%, the fifth greatest drop in the nation. The collapse of the state's industrial base has been so great that its economy will not recover anytime soon.

6. Georgia

2010 Foreclosures: 3.25% (6th Worst)
Unemployment: 10% (9th Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -82.29% (2nd Worst)

The number of building permits issued in 2006 in Georgia was 92,541. In 2010 that number dropped to 16,391. This is the second greatest decrease in the nation during that time. The state's unemployment rate, at 10%, is above the national average of 9.4%. Also in 2010, there were 130,966 foreclosures in Georgia, 3.25% of the state's properties. This is an increase of 53.62% since 2008.

7. Oregon

Unemployment: 10.6% (Tied for 5th Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -74.08% (7th Worst)
Number of Listings With Price Reductions (Portland): 35% (Tied for 8th Worst Among 50 Largest U.S. Cities)

Oregon's real estate market has suffered the double blow of a sharp drop in both building permits and price reductions on existing homes. Unemployment is 10.6%, the fifth worst rate in the country. The number of new building permits decreased by 74% from 2006 to 2010. In December 2010, 35% of listings in Portland, the state's largest city, had price reductions.

8. Florida

Vacancy Rate: 21.03% (2nd Worst)
2010 Foreclosures: 5.51% (3rd Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -81.37% (3rd Worst)

Unemployment in Florida is 12%, the fourth worst in the country. Approximately 1.1 million residents are out of work. Statistics show that 21.03% of the state's housing units are vacant. Furthermore, 5.51% of homes have been foreclosed upon. Florida was among five states that had the largest real estate booms from 2000 to 2006. Residential prices in some waterfront areas like Miami and Palm Beach rose by much more than double during that period. New home and condominium construction soared. Many of those residences have never been occupied and are still part of the inventory of homes for sale.

Sources:

1) Vacancy rates for 2010 -- American Community Survey (Census Bureau)
2) Foreclosure rates for 2010 -- RealtyTrac
3) November 2010 unemployment rates -- Bureau of Labor Statistics
4) Change in building permits from 2006 to 2010 -- Census Bureau
5) Change in population from 2005 to 2010 -- Census Bureau
6) Price reduction by cities for 2010 -- Trulia

 

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Yield Curve Graph

Download now or preview on posterous

Graph.doc (50 KB)

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An Inverted Yield Curve

An Inverted Yield Curve: What It Means to Mortgage Rates & Programs

The U.S. economy, interest rates, and the housing market are frequent topics on the nightly news. Viewers are told about leading economic indicators, how the stock market has performed, and whether the Federal Reserve is planning on changing interest rates. What isn't explained is how these items are interrelated and how they may impact which home loan is best for you. The Federal Reserve attempts to keep the U.S. economy healthy through its use of monetary policy. As fears of inflation increase, the Fed will raise certain short-term interest rates such as the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate banks pay each other for overnight loans. Such an increase causes a ripple effect, with banks raising their prime lending rate. This, in turn, causes an increase in adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rates and the indices they're tied to, such as the 12-Month Treasury Average (MTA), the 11th District Cost of Funds Index (COFI), and the 1-Month London Inter Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR). Under normal circumstances, long-term interest rates would also increase even though they are determined by market trading of bonds and mortgage-backed securities rather than monetary policy. However, in certain instances, the market responds in an unexpected manner. Long-term interest rates are driven by a desire to place money in a steady vehicle that will provide a decent rate of return. When the stock market is underperforming, many corporate and individual investors will sell stocks, and invest their money in bonds. Typically, the longer the holding period of a bond, the higher the yield it will offer. This makes sense because the longer an investor's money is tied up in that investment, the more they should receive for it. However, when there is an increased demand for bonds, the law of supply and demand comes into play. As the demand for bonds increases, the need to attract investors decreases, so the yield offered on those bonds declines. When the Federal Reserve pursues an aggressive policy and raises short-term interest rates repeatedly over an extended period, and the bond and mortgage-backed securities markets are booming so their yields are lower, an unusual situation arises. Short-term interest rates are high while long-term interest rates remain lower. This leads to a shift in the usual yield-versus-term paradigm, known as an inverted yield curve. So what does this mean to a consumer who is trying to determine what type of mortgage would be best under these economic conditions? It means that the cost of an adjustable rate mortgage is not significantly lower than that of a 15- or 30-year fixed mortgage. Rather than taking out (or keeping) an ARM, which is variable and will increase if short-term interest rates keep rising, it may be better to pursue a 15-year or 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Because economic conditions are constantly changing, it's important to consult with a mortgage professional who is knowledgeable about the markets and how they impact the different loan programs available. This will ensure that homeowners obtain the best mortgage available despite market fluctuations.

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FHA extends suspension of 'anti-flipping' rule for another year

FHA extends suspension of 'anti-flipping' rule for another year

The rule was intended to prevent speculators from defrauding the government, but it also stifled the purchase and renovation of foreclosed homes by legitimate investors.

By Kenneth R. Harney, LA Times

January 16, 2011

Reporting from Washington

For years the federal government prohibited the use of Federal Housing Administration mortgage financing by buyers purchasing homes from sellers who had owned the property for less than 90 days. The idea was to prevent speculators from defrauding the government through quick flips of houses — often involving straw buyers and corrupt appraisers — at wildly inflated prices.

One side effect of that policy had been to stifle purchase-and-renovate projects by legitimate, small-scale investors who buy houses after foreclosure or loan defaults and then resell them in substantially improved condition. In many parts of the country, first-time and moderate-income buyers often sought to buy these fixed-up houses using FHA-insured mortgages with 3.5% down payments, but were prevented from doing so by the "anti-flipping" rule.

This left large numbers of foreclosed, vacant houses sitting unsold and deteriorating, with negative effects on the values of neighboring properties.

Last January, FHA Commissioner David H. Stevens announced a one-year suspension of that rule, permitting qualified buyers to obtain FHA mortgages on properties that were acquired by rehabbers less than 90 days before. The plan, set to expire at the end of this month, came with safeguards for purchasers, including inspections and multiple appraisals in some cases to document the amounts spent by investors on the improvements.

Vicki Bott, deputy assistant secretary for single-family housing at the FHA, confirmed in an interview that the agency expects to continue the policy for another year. Not only have first-time buyers responded overwhelmingly to the opportunity to buy "turnkey" renovated homes with low down payments, she said, but they have performed well on their mortgage obligations.

"Obviously we have concerns about flipping in general," Bott said, but the FHA has seen none of the fraud problems, defaults and re-foreclosures that cost the agency millions in insurance payouts in earlier years.

Investor Paul Wylie, who with a group of partners and contractors specializes in acquiring, renovating and reselling foreclosed and distressed houses in the Los Angeles area, says the government's policy "has been a very positive approach" because "it recognizes the role that [private investors] can play in helping the housing market get back on its feet."

In the L.A. market, Wylie said, FHA financing accounts for 40% of all home purchases and 60% of purchases in predominantly Latino and African American communities.

Buying foreclosed houses "comes with a lot of risk factors," Wylie said. "There's no title insurance. We don't have a good idea of the extent of the defects" inside properties that have been sitting vacant or vandalized for months. Some houses come with delinquent property taxes, which Wylie's group typically must pay.

Then again, the profit opportunities can be significant as well. Most of the Wylie group's houses sell for more than 20% higher prices than Wylie paid at acquisition — a quick turnaround gain that potentially works for buyers, sellers, neighborhoods and, yes, the FHA itself.

 

 

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Can you help my daughter?

This is a marathon that my daughter is running to raise money for Lupus (which my wife/her mother suffers from).

Here is her message and the link to her secure website where you can donate if you are able to.

“DEAR FAMILY AND FRIENDS,

 I am running the LA Marathon in March for Lupus LA. Below is my fundraising link!
                               https://www.active.com/donate/teamlupusla/BBeisner
Please help me raise money for Lupus LA, use the above link to donate. The website is secure, fast and easy to use.  At the website you will be able to choose an amount to donate and receive email confirmation of your donation.  Thanks in advance for your help.”

If you received this message more than once, I do apologize.

Thank you!

Duane

"A New Year's resolution is something that goes in one year and out the other." Anonymous

 

 

Best of Success,

Duane Beisner

Broker Associate with over 25 years sales experience!

License Number 00922327

Office: 800-291-9957 ext. 212

email: duane.beisner@era.com

 

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Treasury Eases HAFA Guidelines as Group Urges Action

 

By: Joy Leopold 01/07/2011

DSNews.com

Perhaps as a response to reports and complaints that the government-sponsored Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) program was not working as efficiently as hoped, the Treasury Department has released updated guidelines for the program.

In mid-December, the California Association of Realtors (CAR) submitted a letter to the Treasury and other governmental agencies on behalf of its members, outlining specific problems with and suggested solutions for HAFA.

The letter, which spanned four pages, outlined issues Realtors were having with the program, including the failure of lenders to comply with HAFA timelines and general rules, and the lack of uniformity in guidelines for all HAFA programs. Additionally the letter suggested raising the monetary incentive for servicers, investors and subordinate lien holders, citing the low payout as a common reason that HAFA short sales are rejected.

The letter also recommended that HAFA short sales be the required short sale method for servicers, in order to make all short sale processes equal and uniform.

The directive published two weeks later by the Obama administration becomes effective February 1, 2011, although servicers are encouraged to implement the changes immediately.

The new rules do address some of the issues outlined in the CAR letter, as well as many other matters.

Under the new guidelines, servicers are no longer limited by the 6 percent cap with respect to payments to the subordinate lien holders.

Additionally, servicers are now required to complete and send to the borrower a Short Sale Agreement (SSA) no later than 30 calendar days from the date the borrower responds to the HAFA solicitation. If the borrower requests HAFA consideration, the servicer must respond within 30 days.

In addition to these rules, servicers are no longer required to verify a borrower’s financial information to determine a borrower’s HAFA eligibility, nor is it necessary to determine if the borrower’s total monthly mortgage payment is more than 31 percent of his monthly gross income.

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When will housing come back in California? Five experts offer their views

When will housing come back in California? Five experts offer their views

Foreclosures in the state are still high. Sales of new homes are at historic lows. And millions of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages. So what’s the outlook for 2011 and beyond?

 

By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times

January 1, 2011

 

As housing recoveries go, this one is in need of a cure.

Homeownership — and the buying and selling of residences — is an economic keystone that carries overwhelming weight in Californians’ personal sense of financial well-being.

But the momentum of the state’s housing rebound has faltered, with sales falling and prices softening despite bargain-basement interest rates. Foreclosures in California are still high. Sales of new homes are at historic lows. The construction sector is in the doldrums. And millions of the state’s homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth.

Real estate historically has helped give a boost to economies exiting a recession, but the severity of this bust is nearly unprecedented: Californians have lost $1.73 trillion worth of equity in their homes since prices peaked in 2007, according to Moody’s Economy.com.

Although California’s housing market free-fall ended in spring 2009, the weakness after the expiration of federal tax credits for buyers last year has called into question the sustainability of the recovery.

The Times asked five California experts for their take on the state of real estate and what they think is needed to get the housing market moving again. They range from the pessimism of a foreclosure specialist to the decidedly more upbeat view of a Realtor association economist.

 

• Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, predicts home prices will remain flat in 2011.

California’s recovery will hinge on location, said Green, who held professorships at several universities and worked as a principal economist at Freddie Mac before becoming director of the Lusk center.

“Draw a line from El Centro up to Sacramento and think of all the towns up and down that line. Unless we have hyperinflation in general in the economy — prices going up a lot — I would guess that in my lifetime we will not see a return to the prices that we had at the peak,” Green said.

“Now, places like La Jolla, Malibu, Laguna, Huntington Beach, Atherton, Palo Alto, the city of San Francisco, Marin County, those are places where within the next five years I could easily imagine prices returning to their peak.”

“The markets in the Central Valley were much more bubbly than the markets on the coast,” he said. “You have very few people who make a lot of money in these places.”

“Whereas a place like Silicon Valley, or a place like West Los Angeles, there is a critical mass of very high-income people.… That means you have a large number of people who can afford to spend in the neighborhood of $1 million on a house, and these are desirable places.”

“The more a property is a commodity that you can easily substitute for something else, the less the chance it will ever come back to its peak. The rarer a property is, the more likely it’s going to come back quickly.”

 

• Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Assn. of Realtors, predicts home prices will rise 2% in 2011.

There are few professionals who would like more to see the housing market bounce back to the heady days of old than Realtors. Real estate agents made a killing when the housing market soared and then took a pounding when it tanked.

During the boom years, Appleton-Young said, she espoused the theory that rising prices mattered more than making solid loans. That theory appeared correct as long as values kept rising.

“What happened this time was prices plummeted and everyone was in trouble,” she said.

These days, the economist sees little chance of the market returning to its previous heights anytime soon.

“We are in a very slow-moving recovery with prices stabilized at the moderate and low end,” Appleton-Young said. “We are still seeing price attrition and price softening at the upper ends of the market.”

2011 will be lackluster, she said, but that does not mean California is not improving.

“We are almost two years into a price recovery. The problem is not to look at 2007 as the normal market that you are moving back up to, because it wasn’t a normal market. We are back in an underwriting environment that actually makes sense.”

“You are seeing prices recovering throughout the state,” she added. “It is just going to take time.”

 

• Bruce Norris, president of Norris Group in Riverside, expects home prices to fall 5% in 2011.

The real estate slump has been good to Norris, an investor in foreclosed homes. But he believes the market is being artificially boosted by government programs and is set to fall further this year.

“We are in an artificial recovery,” Norris said. “It’s government controlled and manipulated. We have extremely favorable interest rates that we really should not have, based on our debt. We have supported real estate with tax rebates, and we have prevented inventory from showing up by allowing people to be two and three years behind on their mortgages.”

Foreclosed homes, in particular, are being kept off the market through loan modification attempts and other policies.

“You’ve had a slew of programs trying to prevent inventory from showing up, and that prevents reality from happening,” Norris said. “It’s definitely standing in the way of the natural process.”

What does the housing market need most?

“Demand for houses,” Norris said. “Somebody able to qualify for a loan and actually being able to get it. And that’s why it is not going to happen.”

 

• Emile Haddad, chief executive of FivePoint Communities Inc., expects home prices to “stabilize” in 2011 but declined to make a specific price prediction.

Determining whether the housing market is on steady footing is essential to developers such as Haddad, the former chief investment officer for Lennar Corp. Haddad, along with Lennar, is now part owner of FivePoint, which is managing the development of the Valencia community in Los Angeles County and other high-profile projects. He believes a recovery has yet to take hold in California.

“We are bumping along the bottom,” Haddad said. “And that is a good thing, because that is the first thing that you need in order to start seeing a housing recovery. You need to have a period where values are not going down and the trend is moving in a different direction.”

California’s coastal markets will come back once the job market returns, he said, lifting consumer confidence. But California’s inland areas are more likely to lag behind, and builders will have to reconsider the kind of product they offer in such places.

“In the Central Valley, values have changed a lot,” Haddad said. “You are not going to be able to really have enough depth in the market to sell large, expensive homes, because the ceiling of value is way down.”

“If you pick on a market like Orange County,” he said, “it is still a place that once people feel confident…. I believe people will be out buying homes.”

Affordability is working in the market’s favor.

“We have a mortgage environment that is more favorable — the rates are down — but people are not able to get mortgages, and that is not helping. The most important thing we need is jobs and job creation.”

“Affordability is something I look at, and obviously that is a very attractive metric right now…. There is a value proposition out there right now that is very attractive, that we haven’t seen in four decades.”

 

• Christopher Thornberg, founding principal of Beacon Economics, predicts home prices will remain flat in 2011.

Once a senior economist for the UCLA Anderson Forecast, Thornberg was one of the first to predict the housing crash, pointing to prices that were way out of line with what people earned.

In that vein, he views the plunge in home values as its own recovery of sorts “because that is when prices went from stupid-high levels to levels that made sense again,” Thornberg said. “Now we are in a post-recovery recovery, if you will.”

“This is not the bust. A bust implies that prices have fallen to levels that are too low. And I would argue that prices today are relatively high. It’s interest rates that have given us this degree of affordability, and from that perspective that is why I don’t expect prices to come down.”

Since helping found Beacon in 2006, Thornberg has become chief economist for state Controller John Chiang and chair of the Controller’s Council of Economic Advisors. He serves on the advisory board of New York hedge fund Paulson & Co. He has been a forceful critic of the Obama administration’s policy attempts to right the market.

“The administration has tried, through a variety of policy methods, to try and spike the market,” he said.

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This Is One Expensive Fish!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110105/ap_on_re_as/as_japan_pricey_tuna_3

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